Things have changed since the Lehman Crisis crash in 2008

As evident from the table below we are far better off now in comparison with the Lehman Crisis crash in 2008. CAD, Fiscal Deficit, Forex Reserves & Inflation. Interest Rates & Import bill which are higher and declining with a significant fall in crude amongst other commodities. A possible current account surplus driven by a lower import bill & higher reserves should provide some cushion to the exchange rate. Rainfall has been better than expected & with better irrigation facilities now the impact of a marginally lower monsoon will be lesser than what it would have been historically. Albeit lower GDP growth rate currently is on an increasing trend & is expected to go up further as the economy picks up.

Parameters
Aug-15
 
Jan-08
CAD
0.20%
$1.3 bn
1.00%
$1.2 bn
Fiscal Deficit
3.90%
5.30%
Import Bill
$3.6 bn
$ 2.1 bn
(Monthly)
Forex Reserve
$355 bn
$280 bn
Inflation
         CPI
3.78%
5.51%
        WPI
(-) 4.05%
5.00%
 
10 Year G-Sec
7.89%
7.60%
7.23%
6.15%
Brent Crude
$43
$92
Cement Offtake
~ 3%
~ 8%
Source: Cement Mfrs Assn & GOI
Auto sales (M&HCV)
~ 16%
~ (-)21.6%
Source: SIAM Data
Auto sales (PV)
~ 3.9%
~ 1.8%
Auto sales (2-W)
~ 8.1%
~ 2.6%
Rainfall
~ (-) 10%
~ (-) 2%
Source: MET Data & News Archives
INR-$
66.74
39.28
GDP Growth
7.50%
9.0%
Sabyasachi Paul has been associated with equity research and advisory on equity markets in India for over 9 years & currently heads the equity research desk of Eastern Financiers Ltd, Kolkata.He also manages a portfolio on the online platform Kristal. Find link to the strategy named 'The Tortoise' 

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