As evident from the table below we are far better off now in comparison with the Lehman Crisis crash in 2008. CAD, Fiscal Deficit, Forex Reserves & Inflation. Interest Rates & Import bill which are higher and declining with a significant fall in crude amongst other commodities. A possible current account surplus driven by a lower import bill & higher reserves should provide some cushion to the exchange rate. Rainfall has been better than expected & with better irrigation facilities now the impact of a marginally lower monsoon will be lesser than what it would have been historically. Albeit lower GDP growth rate currently is on an increasing trend & is expected to go up further as the economy picks up.
Parameters | Aug-15 | Jan-08 | |||||
CAD | 0.20% | $1.3 bn | 1.00% | $1.2 bn | |||
Fiscal Deficit | 3.90% | 5.30% | |||||
Import Bill | $3.6 bn | $ 2.1 bn | (Monthly) | ||||
Forex Reserve | $355 bn | $280 bn | |||||
Inflation | |||||||
CPI | 3.78% | 5.51% | |||||
WPI | (-) 4.05% | 5.00% | |||||
10 Year G-Sec | 7.89% | 7.60% | |||||
Call money Rate | 7.23% | 6.15% | |||||
Brent Crude | $43 | $92 | |||||
Cement Offtake | ~ 3% | ~ 8% | Source: Cement Mfrs Assn & GOI | ||||
Auto sales (M&HCV) | ~ 16% | ~ (-)21.6% | Source: SIAM Data | ||||
Auto sales (PV) | ~ 3.9% | ~ 1.8% | |||||
Auto sales (2-W) | ~ 8.1% | ~ 2.6% | |||||
Rainfall | ~ (-) 10% | ~ (-) 2% | Source: MET Data & News Archives | ||||
INR-$ | 66.74 | 39.28 | |||||
GDP Growth | 7.50% | 9.0% | |||||
Sabyasachi Paul has been associated with equity research and advisory on equity markets in India for over 9 years & currently heads the equity research desk of Eastern Financiers Ltd, Kolkata.He also manages a portfolio on the online platform Kristal. Find link to the strategy named ‘The Tortoise’